AFL Round 5: Betting Preview and Tips

AFL Round 5 gets underway with a Thursday night showdown between Brisbane Lions and Collingwood.

A Good Friday double header involves North Melbourne v Essendon Bombers and West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide, while Easter Monday features the traditional clash between Hawthorn and Geelong Cats.

We preview each of the nine games below:

Brisbane Lions v Collingwood

Thursday, April 18

Brisbane opened up their 2019 campaign with three wins and are already within striking distance of their 2018 total of just five. Two of this year’s victories have come at the GABBA, including a 44 point win over last year’s premiers, West Coast. Last weekend, however, they were handed a 47 point defeat by Essendon at the MCG. Collingwood have had some mixed fortunes to date and have won two of their four games. The decisive edge might come in Collingwood’s forward line with Jordan de Goey among a number of Pies that can capitalise against a leaky Lions backline that conceded 17 goals to Essendon last weekend. 

Prediction: Collingwood by 1-39 ($2.20 TopBetta)

North Melbourne v Essendon Bombers

Friday, April 19

Both sides were slow out of the blocks this season but come into the Good Friday match in winning form. North Melbourne dropped their first three games of the home and away season before handing Adelaide a 12 point defeat in Round 4. Essendon lost their first two games and were questioned in the media. But the Bombers have responded with wins over Melbourne and Brisbane. John Worsfold’s side head in as favourites for this clash and have looked dangerous in their forward line in the past two weeks. However, the Kangaroos are not without a chance.

Prediction: Kangaroos +8.5 ($1.90 TopBetta)

West Coast Eagles v Port Adelaide

Friday, April 19

The reigning premiers are starting to fire with West Coast winning their past three matches. The latest was a low-scoring encounter in the Western Derby against Fremantle. Port Adelaide’s momentum has halted. Beginning the season with two wins, the Power have lost their past couple against Brisbane by 17 points and Richmond by seven points. Home-ground advantage will go a long way to see the Eagles triumph and their forward line, led by their two big men in Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling, will be hard for the Power to stop. West Coast should be too good for Port Adelaide at home. 

Prediction: Eagles by 1-39 ($2.00 TopBetta)

GWS Giants v Fremantle Dockers

Saturday, April 20

GWS are among six sides that have won three of their four games this season and sit in 2nd position on the ladder, just behind Geelong on percentage. Fremantle have won two of four and were competitive against last year’s premiers, West Coast, last weekend, going down by 13 points. Only an inaccurate display prevented them from finishing closer to their local rivals. Fremantle won the first four games between the two sides after GWS entered the league in 2012, but the Giants have responded by taking out the past four. This will be closer than a lot of people are predicting and Fremantle loom as the value with the start.

Prediction: Dockers +34.5 ($2.00 TopBetta)

Melbourne Demons v St Kilda

Saturday, April 20

St Kilda have the superior win-loss record but are outsiders in the betting. The Saints have won three of their four games, while Melbourne have won just one of four. The Demons dropped their first three games of the year and were down early on in their contest against Sydney before getting their running game going and overcoming the Swans by 22 points. If the Preliminary Finalists from last year can hold that form they should be hard to beat. But Saints look the value in this one.

Prediction: Saints win ($2.95 TopBetta)

Richmond Tigers v Sydney Swans

Saturday, April 20

Richmond have had a mixed start to the 2019 home and away season with injuries to key players a big talking point. The Tigers have won two of their four games and did well to knock over Port Adelaide last weekend, with the likes of Alex Rance, Jack Riewoldt, Dustin Martin and Trent Cotchin missing. Sydney have also made an indifferent start, winning just one of their three games to date. That victory came against Carlton in Round 3. The Swans have gone down to the Western Bulldogs, Adelaide and Melbourne in their other three games. Those opponents have hardly been setting the world on fire. Richmond will be too good for this Sydney side.

Prediction: Richmond -15.5 ($1.90 TopBetta)

Western Bulldogs v Carlton

Sunday, April 21  

The Western Bulldogs have slowed down with two-straight wins followed by consecutive losses. Carlton come off a narrow two-point loss to the Suns – their fourth straight loss. The Western Bulldogs have dominated Carlton recently, with the past five matches going the way of the Bulldogs. History suggests the Bulldogs will be too good for the Blues but I get a feeling that the Blues will give them a run for their money.

Prediction: Carlton +18.5 ($1.90 TopBetta)

Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast Suns

Sunday, April 21

Adelaide hold a perfect 11-0 record against the Gold Coast Suns since their arrival into the AFL in 2011. The margin of victory has been between 28 and 91 points which showcases how dominant the Crows have been against the Suns. But the Suns have been a surprise so far in 2019 with three wins and one loss. They have won their last three matches, including a late-goal victory over Carlton in Round 4. The Gold Coast have always been beaten by four goals or more against Adelaide but that can stop on Sunday, with a small chance to cause an upset also.

Prediction: Suns +28.5 ($1.93 TopBetta)

Hawthorn v Geelong Cats

Monday, April 22

Hawthorn have had a mixed time of it so far in 2019 to win two of four, but blow match winning leads in both defeats. Geelong are the early pacesetters of the competition and sit on top of the ladder but also come off a narrow defeat, going down to GWS in Geelong by four points last weekend. The Cats hold favouritism and can seize the initiative against a Hawks unit that are struggling to cover injuries to key players, particularly in the middle of the ground.

Prediction: Cats by 1-39 ($2.10 TopBetta)